Policy Agains the Right to Bear Arms
House prices
Monday, 16 May 2022 at 4:21pm
Just out of interest folks, my cheapest block search (hey, we all have our hobbies) in WA has seen a whole lot listed in the 10K range in inland towns... seems to be by a govt agency? Looks to be 1/4 acre in some of the sizings. Important as private blocks in similar were from mid teens to mid 20s (sorry: those who listed before)
Monday, 16 May 2022 at 5:36pm
Monday, 16 May 2022 at 5:55pm
Go to Real Estate FR, search WA, 'block of land', price low to high and goto map - I immediately went through them and sussed the distances. Still quite a way, closest I think were inland of Albany/Esperance/Walpole areas, and be prepared for a different experience of life compared to east coast country towns, but still...
For a bit more coin, found some around the midwest area (where my Ms family is)
Less chance of being flooded out compared to Northern rivers, but it does happen, as it did in Moora from memory..
Monday, 16 May 2022 at 6:02pm
Monday, 16 May 2022 at 6:13pm
Monday, 16 May 2022 at 6:24pm
Monday, 16 May 2022 at 6:35pm
I disagree with the stamp duty argument unless perhaps applied in conjunction with the NG & CT measures. Replacing stamp duty with landtax will only serve to benefit property investors.
another thing which has been missing from this election on housing is renters rights. Given that both parties policies are only really only aimed to increase wealth for current property holders, not to help FHB's it'd be nice to see a policy around tenant protection - capped rents / long term leases / strict eviction rules. In the vein of the euro model. That alone could play a part in stabilising prices by taking the shine off flipping houses. but of course, they don't want to do that
Monday, 16 May 2022 at 6:51pm
We can thank Joh for getting rid of death duties in AU - it's been a race to the bottom since then for tax incentives inflating house prices
Wednesday, 18 May 2022 at 7:04pm
Wednesday, 18 May 2022 at 7:14pm
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/powell-fed-will-keep-pushing-until-cl...
Volckeresque, message seems consistent.
"But if inflation does not fall, Powell said the Fed would not flinch from raising rates until it does.
"If that involves moving past broadly understood levels of 'neutral' we won't hesitate to do that," Powell said, referring to the rate at which economic activity is neither stimulated nor constrained. "We will go until we feel we are at a place where we can say 'yes, financial conditions are at an appropriate place, we see inflation coming down.'" "
Wednesday, 18 May 2022 at 8:37pm
Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 10:10am
Some latest info on wages, some good, strong indicators in here like labor participation rate and job opening rate. But salary growth itself is still sluggish. Good thing is, most who want to (or can) work have some sort of job.
Also, if the cash rate goes to 2.5% by mid-2023 as indicated I cannot see an apocalypse of epic proportions in the housing market. That is still under or just around 5% retail which many can handle in my opinion (assuming solid employment opportunities).
https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2022/may/econosig...
Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 11:55am
Agreed Flollo.
Subdued wages growth will also weigh into RBA decision making re rates.
Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 2:02pm
flollo wrote:Here we go, more issues on the horizon - https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/crisis-talks-underway-as-buildi...
Flollo not on the horizon at all - it's on our doorstep.
Not wanting to be too pessimistic but this is going to play out on a more regular basis and has the potential to be one of the biggest issues the construction industry has ever faced. Companies like Metricon are basically a conveyor belt, pretty much like your brewery punching out a large quantity of their product. Now imagine you can't get glass bottles or cans like they can't get timber framing, trusses or reliable sub trades - how's your cash flow going then. I went bust in 2011 and believe me when you have cash flow problems in the construction industry the debt goes from being and arms length away to knocking on your door before you can blink.
If Metricon goes down, that is two of Australia's biggest builders from both sides of the industry going under in a space of 3 months. Only extremely switched on operators are going to survive this unfortunately.
Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 4:02pm
https://www.fool.com.au/2022/05/19/why-is-the-woolworths-share-price-sli...
off the back of a horror Target US earnings announcement
"Ringing a warning bell on inflation, bricks and mortar retailer Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) told shareholders that rising labour and freight costs took a bite out of the company's bottom line. On top of this, customers tightened their budgets during the quarter — perhaps due to inflation — resulting in reduced spend on discretionary items."
a bit odd staples get smashed after US discretionary does, but who am I to judge?
Related, as here's that shift in sentiment/reduced discretionary spend stuff I've been mentioning, in concrete results.
Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 4:40pm
Target sunk 25% in the last few days. Even Home Depot price is struggling despite overachieving on the expectations.
Thursday, 19 May 2022 at 10:29pm
Wage growth demand will always lag inflation, and will eventually occur out of necessity. And how far does the inflation genie fly in the meantime? US And UK are cases in point.
To wait for wage growth is to tempt the spiral. And once that happens, well, it's a spiral…
Friday, 20 May 2022 at 8:10am
US reported pretty dismal housing numbers today.
Same with Canada.
NZ is struggling.
Seems a lot of demand has been pulled forward. Prettty much every western country implemented the same pandemic response. Not saying it was a bad thing but at some point the demand has to fall back to pre-pandemic levels.
All of this is deflationary.
Sunday, 22 May 2022 at 7:54pm
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 10:41am
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 1:03pm
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 1:41pm
We have 7% inflation at the mo (NZ). Screwed.
Just cycled past the petrol station ($3+ petrol, $2.75 diesel), and did a quick mental calc. Diesel has gone up 700%+ in 20 years. My salary, not quite...
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 1:51pm
Island Bay wrote:We have 7% inflation at the mo (NZ). Screwed.
Just cycled past the petrol station ($3+ petrol, $2.75 diesel), and did a quick mental calc. Diesel has gone up 700%+ in 20 years. My salary, not quite...
I read cauliflowers are $15 a pop over there ? What are they feeding them ???
Seriously I think there is some price gouging happening in NZ; meanwhile we're chucking our veggies away (well, Avocados anyway).
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 1:57pm
How's the cost of living over there IB?
Price of fuel is definitely biting here.
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 2:03pm
Ridiculous. Food and fuel and building materials especially bad. You don't buy a red cabbage at the supy - you buy a quarter of a red cabbage! (In Denmark we used to joke about Norwegians because they sold half cucumbers).
I've seen grownups break down in tears at the petrol station because they can't afford fuel and food, and without fuel the can't get to work etc etc. It's a complete charlie foxtrot, and a heartbreaking one.
But "Be kind!"
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 2:18pm
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 2:19pm
I'm surprised fuel is not more expensive in NZ.
I still can't get over NZ voted her back in again..the regret will eventually kick in.
On a good note...I get to come back soon.
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 2:24pm
kaiser wrote:velocityjohnno wrote:New Zealand raises unterest rates 50 bps, sugnals more aggrissive hikes
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zealand-raises-interest-rates-50-02454913...
Potential for them to be at 3%+ by year's end. If we stay at .35 we are gonna be way out of whack.
We probably won't as our $AUD will turn to shit. Maybe some rationalise it as 'good for export' situation. But all our day-to-day consumer goods are imported (+cars) so it would trigger even bigger inflation. Also, repaying debt in foreign currency would get a lot more expensive.
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 2:36pm
Exactly. Now is not the time to dawdle and wait to see more prints.
Interestingly (not surprisingly) all who have raised rates have seen prop prices decline. Why will we be any different?
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 3:16pm
Don't be too hasty wishing for rising interest rates. Watch the US of A over the coming months to see what happens if you rise too quickly and then have to hit the brakes!!
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 4:36pm
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 6:21pm
IB that sounds like a nuts situation. Is that Auckland or Wellington area? Is life less expensive in the NZ countryside?
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 6:27pm
We're in Waikato, just south of Auckland, but it's the same in Wellington. And no, a lot of goods are more expensive in smaller towns than in cities.
NZ is generally expensive, and now that the massive borrowing/moneyprinting is starting to bite, and productivity is low, it's just coming together in a massive shit storm.
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 6:34pm
Cheers, IB, just had a gander and there are some wonders of the world in that location :) would love to do a NZ surf and road trip one day...
Perhaps I can offer a cure to the borrowing/money printing and resultant shitstorm:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/05/reserve-bank-vows-to-crash-new-...
"In delivering its decision, the RBNZ stated that it needs to "act as a constraint on demand until there is a better match with New Zealand's productive capacity". It also noted that "expected increases in mortgage interest rates are likely to contribute to falls in house prices" and that "house prices are now headed toward a more sustainable level".
ASB senior economist, Mike Jones, said the RBNZ was "more hawkish than expected":
"We thought the RBNZ would came out swinging, but today's statement was still more hawkish than expected. The OCR was lifted 50bps as we and the consensus expected. But the RBNZ's new OCR forecast profile implies both a higher OCR peak than we'd expected, and a more rapid pace of tightening to get there"
Indeed, the RBNZ's 'forward track' released with its Monetary Policy Statement was far more bullish than economists expected. It shows the OCR at 2.7% by September of this year, 3.4% by December, then 3.7% by March and peaking at 3.9% in June 2023.
This would send mortgage rates to around 6% – more than double their pandemic low:"
Looks like they are going to stay the course, right the wrongs, correct the craziness. I'm impressed.
"In turn, the RBNZ expects "house prices to fall by about 14% by early 2024":
Given New Zealand house prices are already down 5% from their peak nationally, the RBNZ's forecast seems optimistic given its bullish OCR forecast."
In markets (14+5=19) 20% is usually termed a 'correction'...
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 6:44pm
be interesting to see how far Oz goes down that same path.
Albo will not be keen to own a recession in his first term and be almost guaranteed to be voted out after one term.
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 6:51pm
VJ, one of the problems is that RBNZ's mandate was changed by the Labour govt. It used to be "Hold inflation at 3% or less" but Full Employment was added during Covid, and so we were on the slippery slope.
And for your viewing pleasure, here are Westpac NZ's mortgage rates:
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 6:57pm
How is all this going down over in NZ IB?
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 7:00pm
Like a bowl of cold sick :-)
Wednesday, 25 May 2022 at 7:51pm
' In markets (14+5=19) 20% is usually termed a 'correction'...'
Correction-
10% is a correction.
20% is a bear
S&P 500 is currently staring down the bear. But the bear is hungry and the s&p is smothered in honey
Nasdaq tried to play dead but it was already too late
Thursday, 26 May 2022 at 2:45pm
Thursday, 26 May 2022 at 2:46pm
Thursday, 26 May 2022 at 2:48pm
Right you are Kaiser, it just looks like a horrid, slumping shouldered beast to me at present (that said, 61.8% of people don't expect a counter-trend ripping bounce...) Not sure if I can be any further cryptic... not investment advice!
Thursday, 26 May 2022 at 2:51pm
flollo wrote:Here's a good link for those who like to dig around a bit.
https://app.remplan.com.au/
Nothing on Northern Rivers in there that I could see?
Thursday, 26 May 2022 at 5:43pm
Thursday, 26 May 2022 at 6:03pm
Thursday, 26 May 2022 at 6:20pm
velocityjohnno wrote:Right you are Kaiser, it just looks like a horrid, slumping shouldered beast to me at present (that said, 61.8% of people don't expect a counter-trend ripping bounce...) Not sure if I can be any further cryptic... not investment advice!
Just scratching my head. Cryptic enough.
Thursday, 26 May 2022 at 6:29pm
Thursday, 26 May 2022 at 6:32pm
VJ you reckon there'll be a bounce after it crashes a bit?
Thursday, 26 May 2022 at 8:25pm
Thursday, 26 May 2022 at 8:31pm
yep they will start folding like dominoes this year
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Source: https://www.swellnet.com/comment/833003
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers